Comment: Disrupting the cartels will require a holistic effort focused on keeping the cartels on the run. Either government security forces or local watch groups need to implement an overt and persistent security presence that will limit cartel freedom of movement. The intent of this effort is for physical security, but even more for perceptual reasons so the population can begin trusting a local legitimate security force. Legitimate may be legal, but legal could also be termed as commonly acceptable when the interests of the people are assured. Such efforts will hopefully force cartel activities underground and thus possibly mitigate their psychological grip on the population.
Note, however, such an overt force may not be safe enough to surface. Therefore another simultaneous action may need to occur; that is for the government and/or locally accepted security forces to run high op-tempo lethal and non-lethal measures to disrupt the physical and psychological grip the cartels may have on the local population. By ramping up the tempo, the cartels will find themselves in react mode, unable to rest, clearly think, unable to trust each other…tensions can run high within the local cartel movement.
Again, while the other above two actions are occurring, the third element needs to be affected; infiltrating the cartel network either directly or through their close associates, friends and/or families. The triad is an interwoven cyclic effort that can be used to put pressure on the cartels from myriad directions. However, all of this will be for naught if an effective form of governance is not established in order to exploit the social void. If the void is left open, then the cycle of violence…tit versus tat will only continue and the legitimacy of the government will be in question.
At the bottom of this post you will see how Mexicans can launch such an attack against the cartels. In the below real-life vignette just posted today by the Houston Chronicle, an on-line hacker group threatens to expose the identities and locations of cartel members if the cartels do not release one of their compadres who was abducted by the cartels.
What if US and Mexican Law Enforcement were able to get the hackers to cooperate and provide that information to both governments?
Note, there is a lot of opportunity Mexicans can exploit here so they can target the cartel using the model posted below. If on-line activism can cause the Arab Spring which toppled and/or shook the governments of at least five nations, then surely online hackers and activists can attack the cartels and expose information that can allow government forces to target them.
Disrupt Insurgent Psychological Dominance
Three, sustained, fundamental activities HAVE TO OCCUR (COIN Triad) for insurgent influence to wane and/or dissipate long enough so governance can be established.
· Cocoon the population
· Run a high op-tempo lethal and non-lethal targeting effort
· Most important, create, mobilize and sustain an overt and surreptitious cell of locals to subvert the insurgent movement. This effort constitutes a TRIAD.
All lethal, non-lethal, intelligence, intelligence operations and collection efforts, civil affairs, political, humanitarian activities must follow along these lines of operation in order to serve as a catalyst for a small minority to become the tipping point for a populace driven counterinsurgency movement.
The British did this in the 50s and 60s in Malaysia and Africa via pseudo gangs and Special Branch where the Brits infiltrated gangs or created fake gangs in order to subvert other gangs. The Sunni Iraqis and US did this in 2006 through the Awakening Movement and “Desert Protection Force”; some elements of the Afghan population initiated similar efforts in 2008/2009.
Figure 1 Graphic illustrates the "three prong" approach to disrupting insurgent psychological dominance of the battle space. Conventional forces stabilize; Special Operations and Targeting forces keep the enemy on the run on the surface and in the underground; Unconventional forces exploit the dissonance caused by targeting operations to penetrate the underground, exploit societal seams and subvert the insurgency from the inside out.
Here is a potential real-life vignette and OPPORTUNITY where Mexicans and the Government of Mexico can coordinate with this reported hacker group and attack the cartel. If the people, governments of Mexico and the US can unite with these hackers, then maybe they can gain access into the names, locations and whereabouts that can facilitate the targeting of the cartel members mentioned in the video and article below.
The following piece represents
extraordinary opportunity
if exploited.
Online hackers threaten to expose cartel's secrets
Group called Anonymous demands release of one of their own who was kidnapped
By DANE SCHILLER, HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Updated 04:09 p.m., Saturday, October 29, 2011
An international group of online hackers is warning a Mexican drug cartel to release one of its members, kidnapped from a street protest, or it will publish the identities and addresses of the syndicate's associates, from corrupt police to taxi drivers, as well as reveal the syndicates' businesses.
The vow is a bizarre cyber twist to Mexico's ongoing drug war, as a group that has no guns is squaring off against the Zetas, a cartel blamed for thousands of deaths as well as introducing beheadings and other frightening brutality.
"You made a huge mistake by taking one of us. Release him," says a masked man in a video posted online on behalf of the group, Anonymous.
"We cannot defend ourselves with a weapon … but we can do this with their cars, homes, bars, brothels and everything else in their possession," says the man, who is wearing a suit and tie.
"It won't be difficult; we all know who they are and where they are located," says the man, who underlines the group's international ties by speaking Spanish with the accent of a Spaniard while using Mexican slang.
He also implies that the group will expose mainstream journalists who are somehow in cahoots with the Zetas by writing negative articles about the military, the country's biggest fist in the drug war.
"We demand his release," says the Anonymous spokesman, who is wearing a mask like the one worn by the shadowy revolutionary character in the movie V for Vendetta, which came out in 2006. "If anything happens to him, you sons of (expletive) will always remember this upcoming November 5."
The person reportedly kidnapped is not named, and the video does not share information about the kidnapping other than that it occurred in the Mexican state of Veracruz during a street protest.
Anonymous draws its roots from an online forum dedicated to bringing sensitive government documents and other material to light.
If Anonymous can make good on its threats to publish names, it will "most certainly" lead to more deaths and could leave bloggers and others open to reprisal attacks by the cartel, contends Stratfor, an Austin-based global intelligence company.
"In this viral world on the Internet, it shows how much damage could be done with just one statement on the Web," said Fred Burton of Stratfor, which published a report Friday that probes the implications of the cartel drawing the activists' ire.
Mike Vigil, the retired head of international operations for the Drug Enforcement Administration, said the Zetas must take Anonymous seriously.
"It is a gutsy move," Vigil said. "By publishing the names, they identify them to rivals, and trust me, they will go after them."
dane.schiller@chron.com
Article source: Online hackers threaten to expose cartel's secrets
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