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Saturday, January 1, 2011

Reinforcing Success - The Seams Mexican Authorities Must Disrupt

The Mexican government is on a roll with respect to disrupting La Familia.  Now Mexico needs to reinforce that success.  How?


Effective governance needs to be established to mitigate the potential for new power brokers to move into any voids left behind La Familia.  To do this the government has to continue to exploit the social seams that made La Familia formidable to begin with.  Below is a general diagram depicting this.



The diagram above notes some of the basic seams and associated dynamics the government must close on to in order to prevent any potential for another destablizer to come forth. 

The seams will initially be closed on by security forces.  Success will be sustained and reinforced by police....this is only a start.  From here the political, and economic infrastructure must provide local Mexicans preferred alternatives to cooperate with the government.  If the government fails, people will give way to criminal activity in order to survive on their own terms.  Informationally, the government needs to constantly dominate the news, the narrative, with both words and deed.  Until this is done, the termination of La Familia will only be short-lived until the group returns, or some other entity replaces it.

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