Mexican Drug War Death Toll from December 2006 to December 2012 is 50,000 NOT 38,000 - See 2012 Trends

On 1 Jan 12, Borderland Beat posted an article that should be considered a baseline read for assessing change in 2012.
The Article, Mexico's Drugs War: Lessons and Challenges cited some interesting observations from "Mexican political scientist Eduardo Guerrero Gutierrez".
Gutierrez made the following notable statements that he believes may shape the upcoming Presidential elections in July 12:
-Since 2006 the Mexican military was deployed to various locations in Mexico to blunt cartel efforts, most of it focused against fighting organizes crime...implying they are affecting police actions in lieu of effective police.
-The death toll in the Mexican Drug War is assessed to be 50,000; just under 17,000 for 2011 alone (based on the current numbers reported...an increase of nearly 10% from 2010. Despite this jump, article noted the "level of violence has stabilized" when compared to the 2009-2010 jump which was 60%.
-There were some positive gains that are noted in the source link listed below.
-The two dominant gangs in Mexico are the Sinaloa Cartel and Los Zetas. The source article noted Sinaloa's focus of effort appears to be more on the business side of trafficking. Los Zetas is less sophisticated and tends to run as thugs in local communities through "extortion rackets".
-The creation of a hydra is a concern. As the Mexican government gains ground by taking down key leaders within the cartels, their actions are contributing to a natural consequence of splintering. Gutierrez seems to imply that without leadership, the cartels are going more localized in their efforts and focus...creating their own independent cells as they lack credibility and effectiveness to act on the level of a major transnational criminal organization. The threat therefore is more to local communities...hence this makes sense why Calderon is increasing his effort to improve/vet police forces providing security and stability in various communities.
Gutierrez's assessment makes sense as the US seemed to experience similar issues when al Qaida in Iraq started to weaken in late 2006-2009. Al Qaida in Iraq functioned very much like the drug cartels in terms of violence, criminal activity, coercion and extortion-the Jihad concept was really an excuse for many to be criminals under the banner of ideology. Actually, the cartels were more physically brutal and less considerate of the indigenous population than al Qaida in Iraq.
Link to last post: http://www.mexdrugcartels.com/2012/01/fw-2012-and-mexican-drug-war-38000.html
Source: Mexico's Drugs War: Lessons and Challenges http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2012/01/mexicos-drugs-war-lessons-and.html