The Mexico Portal provides comprehensive and timely news, analysis and studies on Mexico. It covers a wide range of crucial issues, including migration, security, the economy, development, energy, and elections. The Mexico Portal is a non-partisan, independent project of the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Source: Mexico Institute
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Mexico’s Youngest Assassins
Border Security
The Narco Wars: Mexico’s Youngest Assassins
For many of Mexico’s youths, a job with a narco-cartel is the only job they can find—and the only one they may ever get.
By: Jana Schroeder
Homeland Security Today
Second to right is César Raúl Meza Torres, mini 6, killed at age 21 on April 2010 in Zapopan, Jalisco. He started his brief career as a sicario at a very early age. His father was Raúl Meza Ontiveros M-6 killed on March 2007 in Culiacan.
Organized crime analyst Jose Luis Piñeyro, who teaches at Mexico City’s Metropolitan Autonomous University, told Homeland Security Today, “The most obvious change I see is that those being recruited as hit men or hired assassins are young people—very young people—who are unemployed and poor or drug addicts. They’re not professional assassins, and they don’t have particular knowledge of how to use weapons.” He added: “They’re disposable, they’re recyclable. They’re hired for an average of US $500 to $650 a month to kill an unlimited number of people or to carry out other acts of violence. Ten years ago, a hired assassin charged US $12,000 to $13,000 to kill just one person. So you could say that hiring assassins has become cheaper for drug traffickers.”
source: Borderland Beat: Mexico’s Youngest Assassins
The Narco Wars: Mexico’s Youngest Assassins
For many of Mexico’s youths, a job with a narco-cartel is the only job they can find—and the only one they may ever get.
By: Jana Schroeder
Homeland Security Today
Second to right is César Raúl Meza Torres, mini 6, killed at age 21 on April 2010 in Zapopan, Jalisco. He started his brief career as a sicario at a very early age. His father was Raúl Meza Ontiveros M-6 killed on March 2007 in Culiacan.
Organized crime analyst Jose Luis Piñeyro, who teaches at Mexico City’s Metropolitan Autonomous University, told Homeland Security Today, “The most obvious change I see is that those being recruited as hit men or hired assassins are young people—very young people—who are unemployed and poor or drug addicts. They’re not professional assassins, and they don’t have particular knowledge of how to use weapons.” He added: “They’re disposable, they’re recyclable. They’re hired for an average of US $500 to $650 a month to kill an unlimited number of people or to carry out other acts of violence. Ten years ago, a hired assassin charged US $12,000 to $13,000 to kill just one person. So you could say that hiring assassins has become cheaper for drug traffickers.”
source: Borderland Beat: Mexico’s Youngest Assassins
Saturday, April 23, 2011
New study provides context to the tsunami of drug-related violence in Mexico | Borderzine
Comment. There are some portions with this piece I'm not sure I agree with that I hope to address later in another posting. Regardless, the piece is worth thinking about. Note, it appears this piece was put together by academics. While good, they tend to think from one hemisphere...one also needs to look for information associated with more practical issues of the problem e.g. police, military and problem solver type perspectives. This is especially true when studying "open systems", meaning people. End comment.
New study provides context to the tsunami of drug-related violence in Mexico | Borderzine: "Campbell, who is very familiar with the drug violence in Mexico, said it is difficult to understand what is going on between the cartels but has agreed the context offers a broader outlook of how each drug trafficking organizations operate.
“Each cartel has certain alliances within the Mexican police system, and the political system,” Campbell said. “There are also ways in which those relationships can break out and cause conflict and fighting.”"
New study provides context to the tsunami of drug-related violence in Mexico | Borderzine: "Campbell, who is very familiar with the drug violence in Mexico, said it is difficult to understand what is going on between the cartels but has agreed the context offers a broader outlook of how each drug trafficking organizations operate.
“Each cartel has certain alliances within the Mexican police system, and the political system,” Campbell said. “There are also ways in which those relationships can break out and cause conflict and fighting.”"
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
A "New" Dynamic in the Western Hemisphere Security Environment: The Mexican Zetas and Other Private Armies
A "New" Dynamic in the Western Hemisphere Security Environment: The Mexican Zetas and Other Private Armies
Brief Synopsis
This monograph is intended to help political, military, policy, opinion, and academic leaders think strategically about explanations, consequences, and responses that might apply to the volatile and dangerous new dynamic that has inserted itself into the already crowded Mexican and hemispheric security arena, that is, the privatized Zeta military organization. In Mexico, this new dynamic involves the migration of traditional hard-power national security and sovereignty threats from traditional state and nonstate adversaries to hard and soft power threats from professional private nonstate military organizations. This dynamic also involves a more powerful and ambiguous mix of terrorism, crime, and conventional war tactics, operations, and strategies than experienced in the past. Moreover, this violence and its perpetrators tend to create and consolidate semi-autonomous enclaves (criminal free-states) that develop in to quasi-states—and what the Mexican government calls “Zones of Impunity.” All together, these dynamics not only challenge Mexican security, stability, and sovereignty, but, if left improperly understood and improperly countered, also challenge the security and stability of the United States and Mexico’s other neighbors.
Borderland Beat: Los Zetas distributing flyers in Saltillo, Coahuil...
Borderland Beat: Los Zetas distributing flyers in Saltillo, Coahuil...:
"According to flyers being handed out in Saltillo, Coahuila, the Zetas are offering a $5 million peso reward and protection to the person or persons who lead them to CDG leaders Comandante Pareja and el Güero Valero.
Text:You can do something for your family and also return peace to the homes of the citizens of Saltillo.
All you have to do is give information about the people who have been throwing grenades in different parts of the city and are now planning on doing the same in commercial plazas where your loved ones may be affected.
The types of attacks against police corporations have been carried out by the GULF CARTEL.DARE TO DO IT!!!!!!
THE LAST LETTER (Los Z) WILL PROTECT YOU.
We will guarantee your personal safety and those close to you.We are not kidnappers, extortioners, or rapists.
WE DO NOT KILL INNOCENT PEOPLE!!!!
Quite the contrary we can help you.If you need us, call us, anytime:8448089082IF YOU KNOW THESE PEOPLE, REPORT THEM!!!"
Source: Diario del Narco http://www.diariodelnarco.com/2011/04/los-zetas-reparten-volantes-en-saltillo.html
"According to flyers being handed out in Saltillo, Coahuila, the Zetas are offering a $5 million peso reward and protection to the person or persons who lead them to CDG leaders Comandante Pareja and el Güero Valero.
Text:You can do something for your family and also return peace to the homes of the citizens of Saltillo.
All you have to do is give information about the people who have been throwing grenades in different parts of the city and are now planning on doing the same in commercial plazas where your loved ones may be affected.
The types of attacks against police corporations have been carried out by the GULF CARTEL.DARE TO DO IT!!!!!!
THE LAST LETTER (Los Z) WILL PROTECT YOU.
We will guarantee your personal safety and those close to you.We are not kidnappers, extortioners, or rapists.
WE DO NOT KILL INNOCENT PEOPLE!!!!
Quite the contrary we can help you.If you need us, call us, anytime:8448089082IF YOU KNOW THESE PEOPLE, REPORT THEM!!!"
Source: Diario del Narco http://www.diariodelnarco.com/2011/04/los-zetas-reparten-volantes-en-saltillo.html
Infiltration and Subversion - Mexico's War On Drugs
This interesting article Borderland Beat: Mexico's War On Drugs addressed the following issues:
-Provides a quick orientation regarding the genesis of the current drug war in Mexico
-2006 "By the time President Felipe Calderón assumed office it was estimated that over half of all local and state authorities were on the drug cartel’s payroll with corruption spreading into federal agents and across the border into the United States’ police departments."
-it gives a run down on the following cartels -- The Gulf Cartel, The Tijuana Cartel, The Sinaloa Cartel and The Juarez Cartel.
-Cartel global expansion efforts
-Lack of US commitment to fight help Mexico degrade, disrupt cartel activities
-Most interesting, is the article's claim Colombian cartel efforts to politically strategically subvert the US by flooding the country with drugs..." It is well known that the drug trade was established by key players as a political attack against the United States but greed has kept drug cartels pumping dope in. A famous example of this is the work of George Jung and Carlos Lehder. Together Jung and Lehder flooded the United States with cocaine by air, successfully raising the amounts being smuggled in from a few kilos at a time to a few tons. When Jung overheard that Lehder had not been in the business for money but to drop the deadly and addictive drug on the American’s like an atomic bomb, Jung broke ties with Lehder but continued trafficking the drug on his own until his capture."
Unwitting Cartel Toys? The UN and Huffington Post - Thousands Across Mexico Call for New Strategy in Drug War
Thought: I wonder how many of the demonstrations were penetrated by those who benefitted from the cartels, or hired to protest in support of cartel interest...false illusion...a well-known tactic used by criminal and insurgent elements. Sure, there were likely actual demonstrations with real feelings against the government tactics...the cartels would be one of them, but the government did not kill 36K people. So, it's okay to support the cartels, but its bad to support the government-hmm... Some messed up logic here in the Huffington Post article as well as a possible miguided UN, that is only quasi-effective against nation states, but near totally ineffective against non-state actors like Mexican drug cartels. What kind of pressure is the UN and Huffington Post putting on the cartels? And one last thought regarding the last line of the last article excerpt below, there is NO RULE OF LAW or there would not be a cartel problem to begin with. The implied bottom line here appears to be that state actors are held accountable, non-state actor criminals, terrorists and insurgents are not. End thought.
Visit this link addressing tactical/strategic deception before reading the article, and then ask yourself if the media are possibly being played to some extent. Though the video example addresses a Mid-East issue, the video shows how a threat element uses deception to sway public opinion by shaping/influencing the media.
"In early April, thousands of Mexicans poured into the streets in over 20 Mexican cities to raise their voices in a chorus of protest against the government's ineffective and increasingly unpopular military campaign against organized crime. That same week, authorities unearthed 145 murder victims in northeastern Mexico, not far from where 72 migrants were massacred last August. This gruesome discovery has further fueled the Mexican people's anger at the government's failure to stem spiraling violence that has led to over 35,000 dead in the past four years."
"Just a week earlier, the United Nations released a report urging Mexican authorities to immediately withdraw the armed forces from "public security operations and criminal law enforcement" as a critical step to prevent forced disappearances. Simply put, the UN is urging Mexico to send its soldiers back to the barracks.
The UN findings indicate that security forces have played a role in disappearances. Mexico's own National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) agrees, citing that 5,397 people have been reported missing since 2006 when a newly inaugurated Felipe Calderon deployed thousands of soldiers across the country in an effort to pursue drug cartels. CNDH president Raúl Plascencia Villanueva echoed the UN recommendation when he urged the Mexican government to revise its public security strategy, emphasizing that only the police ought to carry out public security operations.
Mexicans are fed up, and for a good reason. Reports of grisly human rights abuses committed by the military, including torture, rape, and murder, have gone unchecked. Over 4,000 complaints of human rights violations have been filed with Mexico's National Human Rights Commission since President Calderón took office. Yet the notoriously opaque military tribunals have sentenced only one soldier for a human rights violation committed during the Calderón administration.
For years, as complaints of abuses by the military multiplied, rights groups have demanded that basic human rights be protected and that putting an end to rampant impunity is the enduring and effective solution to contesting organized crime, not military might. Without full and fair investigations, prosecutions and conviction, criminals -- both organized crime and corrupt officials -- will continue to be let off the hook, victims will continue to be denied justice, and the climate of lawlessness in which violence thrives will continue to undermine public support for efforts to ensure public safety.
The L.A. Times noted on Monday that the recent discovery of mass graves in northern Mexico should serve as a catalyst to advance desperately-needed judicial reforms in order to address skyrocketing levels of violence and impunity and restore the public's trust. Yet the Mexican government's response to these most recent slayings has been to send in more troops to patrol the streets. The Mexican people, however, have resoundingly called for a fresh, more effective strategy that respects human rights and upholds the rule of law. "
Source: Lisa Haugaard: Thousands Across Mexico Call for New Strategy in Drug War
Visit this link addressing tactical/strategic deception before reading the article, and then ask yourself if the media are possibly being played to some extent. Though the video example addresses a Mid-East issue, the video shows how a threat element uses deception to sway public opinion by shaping/influencing the media.
"In early April, thousands of Mexicans poured into the streets in over 20 Mexican cities to raise their voices in a chorus of protest against the government's ineffective and increasingly unpopular military campaign against organized crime. That same week, authorities unearthed 145 murder victims in northeastern Mexico, not far from where 72 migrants were massacred last August. This gruesome discovery has further fueled the Mexican people's anger at the government's failure to stem spiraling violence that has led to over 35,000 dead in the past four years."
"Just a week earlier, the United Nations released a report urging Mexican authorities to immediately withdraw the armed forces from "public security operations and criminal law enforcement" as a critical step to prevent forced disappearances. Simply put, the UN is urging Mexico to send its soldiers back to the barracks.
The UN findings indicate that security forces have played a role in disappearances. Mexico's own National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) agrees, citing that 5,397 people have been reported missing since 2006 when a newly inaugurated Felipe Calderon deployed thousands of soldiers across the country in an effort to pursue drug cartels. CNDH president Raúl Plascencia Villanueva echoed the UN recommendation when he urged the Mexican government to revise its public security strategy, emphasizing that only the police ought to carry out public security operations.
Mexicans are fed up, and for a good reason. Reports of grisly human rights abuses committed by the military, including torture, rape, and murder, have gone unchecked. Over 4,000 complaints of human rights violations have been filed with Mexico's National Human Rights Commission since President Calderón took office. Yet the notoriously opaque military tribunals have sentenced only one soldier for a human rights violation committed during the Calderón administration.
For years, as complaints of abuses by the military multiplied, rights groups have demanded that basic human rights be protected and that putting an end to rampant impunity is the enduring and effective solution to contesting organized crime, not military might. Without full and fair investigations, prosecutions and conviction, criminals -- both organized crime and corrupt officials -- will continue to be let off the hook, victims will continue to be denied justice, and the climate of lawlessness in which violence thrives will continue to undermine public support for efforts to ensure public safety.
The L.A. Times noted on Monday that the recent discovery of mass graves in northern Mexico should serve as a catalyst to advance desperately-needed judicial reforms in order to address skyrocketing levels of violence and impunity and restore the public's trust. Yet the Mexican government's response to these most recent slayings has been to send in more troops to patrol the streets. The Mexican people, however, have resoundingly called for a fresh, more effective strategy that respects human rights and upholds the rule of law. "
Source: Lisa Haugaard: Thousands Across Mexico Call for New Strategy in Drug War
Monday, April 18, 2011
Guy Lawson's other pieces on the Mexican Cartels
Comment: Lawson makes to interesting points worthy of consideration. End comment.
Rolling Stone reporter Guy Lawson offers some additional interesting insights regarding his reporting on the Mexican Drug Conflict.
HOW THE CARTELS WORK:
Guy Lawson on Mexican
source: http://guylawson.com/articles01.html
Video: Guy Lawson Interview
September 2, 2009
In this video, Guy Lawson breaks down the pseudo-corporate structure of the drug operations and explain how the drugs get distributed in the States.
Rolling Stone reporter Guy Lawson offers some additional interesting insights regarding his reporting on the Mexican Drug Conflict.
HOW THE CARTELS WORK:
Guy Lawson on Mexican
source: http://guylawson.com/articles01.html
September 2009
Mexican drug lords have transformed the narcotics trade in America – and the DEA appears powerless to stop them
Mexican drug lords have transformed the narcotics trade in America – and the DEA appears powerless to stop them
Video: Guy Lawson Interview
September 2, 2009
In this video, Guy Lawson breaks down the pseudo-corporate structure of the drug operations and explain how the drugs get distributed in the States.
THE MAKING OF A NARCO STATE
March 2009
As Mexico descends into brutality and lawlessness, the government itself has become a tool of the drug lords.
Video: Drug Cartel Violence Plagues Mexico
March 13, 2009
Rolling Stone's Guy Lawson and author Pete Hamill join the Morning Joe gang to discuss the escalating violence along the Mexican border.
As Mexico descends into brutality and lawlessness, the government itself has become a tool of the drug lords.
Video: Drug Cartel Violence Plagues Mexico
March 13, 2009
Rolling Stone's Guy Lawson and author Pete Hamill join the Morning Joe gang to discuss the escalating violence along the Mexican border.
THE WAR NEXT DOOR
November 2008
As drug cartels battle the government, Mexico descends into chaos.
Video: The War Next Door
Guy Lawson takes you behind the scenes of his Rolling Stone feature on the Mexican drug war.
As drug cartels battle the government, Mexico descends into chaos.
Video: The War Next Door
Guy Lawson takes you behind the scenes of his Rolling Stone feature on the Mexican drug war.
How the Cartels Work
Comment: I think the Rolling Stone reporter brings up some very valid issues. It makes sense to be a bit more analytical with respect to truly assessing the nature of the cartel threat towards the US Homeland. However, he does not really seem to understand the long-term implications of the threat and its pervasiveness. While it is true the cartel pose little of a direct threat to US interests at this moment, the long term impacts of their activities on US soil contribute to the infiltration and subversion of small communities and societies, that can grow into county and state threats if ignored. This is one reason why Mexico cannot contain the conflict within its own borders. End Comment.
How the Cartels Work
Monday, April 18, 2011 | Borderland Beat Reporter Buggs
By Guy Lawson
Rolling Stone
A revisit:
Mexican drug lords have transformed the narcotics trade in America — and the DEA appears powerless to stop them.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Video - DEA's Global Operations Officer and His Observations of Mexico
Video Date: Sep 2010
This DEA officer offers viewers some very sensible insights into his perspective of the narco-cartel problem that are noteworthy:
-The increase of violence is an indicator of Mexico's growing success against the cartels
-There is a comprehensive plan that takes a holistic approach to attacking the drug cartel problem, but it's going to take time for the results to show. (Segue: indicators of this seems to be occurring as reporters, such as those from Borderland Beat, note cartels are splintering and attacking more locals...it's a counter intuitive way of thinking, but those familiar with countersubversion tactics will understand the reasons why.)
-The organized drug criminal threat is not only a Mexican national security threat, but it is also America's number one threat according to the DEA official.
This DEA officer offers viewers some very sensible insights into his perspective of the narco-cartel problem that are noteworthy:
-The increase of violence is an indicator of Mexico's growing success against the cartels
-There is a comprehensive plan that takes a holistic approach to attacking the drug cartel problem, but it's going to take time for the results to show. (Segue: indicators of this seems to be occurring as reporters, such as those from Borderland Beat, note cartels are splintering and attacking more locals...it's a counter intuitive way of thinking, but those familiar with countersubversion tactics will understand the reasons why.)
-The organized drug criminal threat is not only a Mexican national security threat, but it is also America's number one threat according to the DEA official.
On the bloody side of the border - Columns - Opinion - The Telegram
Below are a couple of interesting findings from an author who criticizes Mexico's get hard on drugs policy and believes legalization of drugs is the key to stability in Mexico.
"Abandoned homes
It has only grown worse since the current Mexican president ordered an all-out offensive against the trade five years ago. In Juarez alone, almost one-quarter of the city’s 488,000 homes have been abandoned by their owners — many of whom claim that they’re ordered out of their neighbourhoods by thugs who need the territory to carry out their illegal activities.
Unfortunately, Juarez is not the only Mexican city with a problem of indiscriminate drug trade violence. A recent international report — one that the Mexican government seems reluctant to acknowledge — calculates that more than 35,000 people have been murdered since 2006, when Mexico’s War on Drugs began, and that as many as 230,000 people have been rendered homeless."
source: On the bloody side of the border - Columns - Opinion - The Telegram
"Abandoned homes
It has only grown worse since the current Mexican president ordered an all-out offensive against the trade five years ago. In Juarez alone, almost one-quarter of the city’s 488,000 homes have been abandoned by their owners — many of whom claim that they’re ordered out of their neighbourhoods by thugs who need the territory to carry out their illegal activities.
Unfortunately, Juarez is not the only Mexican city with a problem of indiscriminate drug trade violence. A recent international report — one that the Mexican government seems reluctant to acknowledge — calculates that more than 35,000 people have been murdered since 2006, when Mexico’s War on Drugs began, and that as many as 230,000 people have been rendered homeless."
source: On the bloody side of the border - Columns - Opinion - The Telegram
Mexico Battles Proliferation of Drug Language
source: Borderland Beat: Mexico Battles Proliferation of Drug Language
"There are a half dozen words for drug cartel informants, and double that for drug war dead. 'Narco' has become a general prefix. The trend has people worrying that Mexico is developing a kind of offhand jargon that anesthetizes people by making escalating violence seem routine.
Some experts, however, say slang and euphemisms can help people deal with the horrors around them."
Some experts, however, say slang and euphemisms can help people deal with the horrors around them."
Factbox: Key facts about Mexico's Zetas drug cartel | Reuters
Factbox: Key facts about Mexico's Zetas drug cartel Reuters
Report provides a snapshot and quick history of Los Zetas.
Report provides a snapshot and quick history of Los Zetas.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Video "America Does Not Know..." Cartels pushing informants into law enforcement?
Bottom line up front; the sheriff in the video interview highlights some critical national security issues many US citizens are not aware of; issues the US government seems to be putting at low priority...below Libya for example.
This video discusses several techniques the cartels use to do the following:
This video discusses several techniques the cartels use to do the following:
- Tactics cartels use to penetrate the Mexican security infrastructure to facilitate cartel operations... a form of subversion.
- Video notes how US border officials are being bribed to allow cartels logistics activities enter the US.... a form of infiltration and subversion.
- Video highlights a number of issues Americans are generally unaware of that is slowly having an impact on the US way of life...nascent/subtle form of infiltration and subversion.
- Video highlights counterintelligence concerns within US law enforcement and border enforcement agencies.
"The Security They Owe Us"
The excerpts and source article below are about the Mexican Governments failure to maintain the social contract with its people by securing the general welfare and interests for its people.
------------
"The prevailing perception is that of a weak state unable to enforce the law. While an unprecedented number of police and military have been deployed to fight organized crime, drug trafficking is intact, drug addictions are on the rise, and related crimes such as kidnapping, extortion and human trafficking are burdening millions of Mexicans who feel helpless, with no one to turn to."
------------
"The prevailing perception is that of a weak state unable to enforce the law. While an unprecedented number of police and military have been deployed to fight organized crime, drug trafficking is intact, drug addictions are on the rise, and related crimes such as kidnapping, extortion and human trafficking are burdening millions of Mexicans who feel helpless, with no one to turn to."
"The people’s tranquility, their heritage, their freedom and even their lives are being lost as the authorities appear to be have lost control of the problem. This rewards impunity."
"Investments are being affected. Some cities, once strong and industrious, are now synonymous with violence and war. We have roads that nobody wants to move on. So, little by little, the criminals are gaining ground is spite of the massive government effort that does not seem to intimidate. If the strategy is wrong, we must correct it or adjust it, but now, without delay, without obstinately following the path that currently seems futile to maintain. "
Police Officers Arrested Over Mexico Mass Graves; Death Toll Climbs
"Sixteen police officers were arrested there Thursday for allegedly serving as accomplices to members of a drug cartel suspected in the slayings, the federal attorney general said in a statement."
"This displays the great rot in our institutions," Mexican poet Javier Sicilia, who is organizing protests against the violence, said Wednesday, according to the Houston Chronicle. "All of us have serious shortcomings and criminal complicities disguised as legality that have plunged us into chaos."
source: Police Officers Arrested Over Mexico Mass Graves; Death Toll Climbs
The Mexican government says the cartels are not insurgents because they are not trying to overthrow the Mexican government, nor do they adhere to a political ideology. Maybe, that's because the cartels already control key elements of the government, such as Mexico's police officers.
Another example of failed governance.
"This displays the great rot in our institutions," Mexican poet Javier Sicilia, who is organizing protests against the violence, said Wednesday, according to the Houston Chronicle. "All of us have serious shortcomings and criminal complicities disguised as legality that have plunged us into chaos."
source: Police Officers Arrested Over Mexico Mass Graves; Death Toll Climbs
The Mexican government says the cartels are not insurgents because they are not trying to overthrow the Mexican government, nor do they adhere to a political ideology. Maybe, that's because the cartels already control key elements of the government, such as Mexico's police officers.
Another example of failed governance.
Video and Mexican drug cartels considered terrorists? - CNN.com
"Mexican officials have repeatedly said that drug cartels are neither an insurgency nor terrorist organizations because their purpose is neither to destabilize the government nor promote a political ideology. Their level of cruelty is unprecedented, but they don't hate a particular group. Their only motive, Mexican authorities say, is hard, cold cash."
Source: Mexican drug cartels considered terrorists? - CNN.com
The Mexican officials do not understand what insurgency is, or many of them are complicit with the cartels activities...here is why. While it's true the narcos are not destablizing the national government, the narcos are destabilizing/subverting local governments and society.
How do we know this? The phrase "plata O plomo"...that phrase means only one thing- coercion.
The fact some narco affliates have run for government office, serve in the police forces, control/influence towns for their own purposes makes them terrorists, for while terrorism is a tactic...it is the dominant tactic and tool used against citizens of Mexico.
Yes, the cartels ARE destablizing government...a political ideology is not needed, in that the cartels rules replaces local governance...that is subversion.
Mexico has a criminal insurgency problem, and the primary means of exerting control is through use of terrorist tactics...tactics the government finds itself unable to stop...meaning the government has no control over the situation.
Source: Mexican drug cartels considered terrorists? - CNN.com
The Mexican officials do not understand what insurgency is, or many of them are complicit with the cartels activities...here is why. While it's true the narcos are not destablizing the national government, the narcos are destabilizing/subverting local governments and society.
How do we know this? The phrase "plata O plomo"...that phrase means only one thing- coercion.
The fact some narco affliates have run for government office, serve in the police forces, control/influence towns for their own purposes makes them terrorists, for while terrorism is a tactic...it is the dominant tactic and tool used against citizens of Mexico.
Yes, the cartels ARE destablizing government...a political ideology is not needed, in that the cartels rules replaces local governance...that is subversion.
Mexico has a criminal insurgency problem, and the primary means of exerting control is through use of terrorist tactics...tactics the government finds itself unable to stop...meaning the government has no control over the situation.
Violence Seen Rising as Cartels Splinter
Some decent news...
Click on the link below to read the remainder of this interesting article. The piece highlights where the Mexican government is having a counterintuitive positive impact in that while the government is succeeding in breaking up the cartels; the narcos are increasing the pressure and violence against the locals.
While bad on the surface, this may be what's needed in order to force locals to choose sides and fight back as noted by the late counterinsurgent David Galula...
Source: Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice
"It can no longer be ignored or applied unconsciously in a country beset by a revolutionary war, when what is at stake is precisely the counterinsurgent’s power directly challenged by an active minority through the use of subversion and force. The counterinsurgent who refuses to use this law for his own purposes, who is bound by its peacetime limitations, tends to drag the war out without getting closer to victory. How far to extend the limitations is a matter of ethics, and a very serious one, but no more so than bombing the civilian population in a conventional war. All wars are cruel, the revolutionary war perhaps most of all because every citizen, whatever his wish, is or will be directly and actively involved in it by the insurgent who needs him and cannot afford to let him remain neutral. The cruelty of the revolutionary war is not a mass, anonymous cruelty but a highly personalized, individual one. No greater crime can be committed by the counterinsurgent than accepting, or resigning himself to, the protraction of the war. He would do as well to give up early."
and
"The strategic problem of the counterinsurgent may be defined now as follows: “To find the favorable minority, to organize it in order to mobilize the population against the insurgent minority.” Every operation, whether in the military field or in the political, social, economic, and psychological fields, must be geared to that end. To be sure, the better the cause and the situation, the larger will be the active minority favorable to the counterinsurgent and the easier its task. This truism dictates the main goal of the propaganda—to show that the cause and the situation of the counterinsurgent are better than the insurgent’s. More important, it underlines the necessity for the counterinsurgent to come out with an acceptable countercause."
"It can no longer be ignored or applied unconsciously in a country beset by a revolutionary war, when what is at stake is precisely the counterinsurgent’s power directly challenged by an active minority through the use of subversion and force. The counterinsurgent who refuses to use this law for his own purposes, who is bound by its peacetime limitations, tends to drag the war out without getting closer to victory. How far to extend the limitations is a matter of ethics, and a very serious one, but no more so than bombing the civilian population in a conventional war. All wars are cruel, the revolutionary war perhaps most of all because every citizen, whatever his wish, is or will be directly and actively involved in it by the insurgent who needs him and cannot afford to let him remain neutral. The cruelty of the revolutionary war is not a mass, anonymous cruelty but a highly personalized, individual one. No greater crime can be committed by the counterinsurgent than accepting, or resigning himself to, the protraction of the war. He would do as well to give up early."
and
"The strategic problem of the counterinsurgent may be defined now as follows: “To find the favorable minority, to organize it in order to mobilize the population against the insurgent minority.” Every operation, whether in the military field or in the political, social, economic, and psychological fields, must be geared to that end. To be sure, the better the cause and the situation, the larger will be the active minority favorable to the counterinsurgent and the easier its task. This truism dictates the main goal of the propaganda—to show that the cause and the situation of the counterinsurgent are better than the insurgent’s. More important, it underlines the necessity for the counterinsurgent to come out with an acceptable countercause."
"Presenting their topic to about 75 people in attendance, the intelligence analysts said Calderón is fighting an anti-cartel battle, not an anti-drug war. Breaking down the cartels has also meant strengthening law enforcement, which the analysts said has seen some progress. A new Mexican federal police training center, improved background checks and increased pay help reduce corruption within the force, Lauren said.
'They got the ball started in what's going to be a long, long process,' she said."
'They got the ball started in what's going to be a long, long process,' she said."
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Mexico's Lost Generation - The Power of Perception and Reality
While the video is dated late 2010, its message remains relevant...Mexico appears to be dying as a functional nation state; the US does not want to realize that, and the Mexican government is in denial that it is ineffective.
True, the video below is just a snapshot of events, but in the world of insurgency, instability and media...perception shapes reality, and right now the cartels shape, influence, control and dominate that reality. And at the end of the day, its what the people believe that will cause them to live as they do, and make the choices they select. Whoever dominates that narrative, achieves psychological dominance of the battlespace.
Weak governance, moral relativism and rampant crime is contributing to a new generation of Mexcians that highlight what appears to be the future of Mexico - a FAILED STATE.
The state does not protect it's people; it does not feed its people; it's people lack jobs; narcos control/influence towns; the police extort people for money on the roads to subsidize lack of adequate pay; few criminals are successfully prosecuted, and you have a Mexican diplomat who refuses to call the narcos terrorists, but instead refers them as businessmen.
If this is NOT indicative of failing governance and a failing society, or a failing state, what is? The future of Mexico and its social/cultural mores are revealed in the video below.
That said, can anybody say why Libya is more imporant, and relevant, to US interests than Mexico?
As for actual state failure; this has be validated. For example, how much of Mexico is under actual control of the cartels? How effective is governance in these other parts of Mexico? Are the other portions of Mexico not under control by the cartels more important to the nation's survival than the areas under narco control? What is the Mexican government doing to deny the cartels the narrative which shapes perceptions in a way making the situation in Mexico appear more dire than it really is? However, right now, there is no doubt the cartels dominate the perceptual realm; and this is truly where the real fight is...the physical/tangible results of their control begins in the mind.
True, the video below is just a snapshot of events, but in the world of insurgency, instability and media...perception shapes reality, and right now the cartels shape, influence, control and dominate that reality. And at the end of the day, its what the people believe that will cause them to live as they do, and make the choices they select. Whoever dominates that narrative, achieves psychological dominance of the battlespace.
Weak governance, moral relativism and rampant crime is contributing to a new generation of Mexcians that highlight what appears to be the future of Mexico - a FAILED STATE.
The state does not protect it's people; it does not feed its people; it's people lack jobs; narcos control/influence towns; the police extort people for money on the roads to subsidize lack of adequate pay; few criminals are successfully prosecuted, and you have a Mexican diplomat who refuses to call the narcos terrorists, but instead refers them as businessmen.
If this is NOT indicative of failing governance and a failing society, or a failing state, what is? The future of Mexico and its social/cultural mores are revealed in the video below.
That said, can anybody say why Libya is more imporant, and relevant, to US interests than Mexico?
As for actual state failure; this has be validated. For example, how much of Mexico is under actual control of the cartels? How effective is governance in these other parts of Mexico? Are the other portions of Mexico not under control by the cartels more important to the nation's survival than the areas under narco control? What is the Mexican government doing to deny the cartels the narrative which shapes perceptions in a way making the situation in Mexico appear more dire than it really is? However, right now, there is no doubt the cartels dominate the perceptual realm; and this is truly where the real fight is...the physical/tangible results of their control begins in the mind.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
BBC News - Tamaulipas: 'Failed state' in Mexico's war on drugs
Comment: Mexico has a number of failed communities. If more communities fail, it could potentially lead up to a failed state. End comment.
"'No control'
Some people in Mexico go as far as saying the federal government has lost Tamaulipas.
'Neither the regional nor federal government have control over the territory of Tamaulipas,' says Alberto Islas, a security analyst in Mexico City.
'For example criminal groups are more effective at collecting 'taxes' than Tamaulipas' own government,' he adds, explaining that cartels have become organised crime groups, which as well as trafficking narcotics, also extort and kidnap.
The federal government disputes this view, saying the violence in the state is confined to a few municipalities and that it has made advances in the fight against cartels."
Borderland Beat: Mexico's Largest Media Corporation Behind Plan to ...
Borderland Beat: Mexico's Largest Media Corporation Behind Plan to ...: "The “Mexico Initiative” PR Campaign Returns To Distort and Sanitize News Reports. By Erin Rosa Narco News Editorial cartoon from Mexican ar..."
Borderland Beat: President Calderon Says Mexico Not a Failed State
Borderland Beat: President Calderon Says Mexico Not a Failed State: "President Felipe Calderon said in an interview published Sunday by the Spanish daily El Pais that Mexico was not a failed state and blamed t..."
Borderland Beat: Napolitano: US border towns with Mexico are safe
Borderland Beat: Napolitano: US border towns with Mexico are safe: "By JUAN CARLOS LLORCA Associated Press EL PASO, Texas – U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano said Thursday that security on..."
Borderland Beat: Mexican cartels strategize to win hearts and minds...
Borderland Beat: Mexican cartels strategize to win hearts and minds...: "The Brownsville Herald Bullets have been sprayed and blood spilled in the ongoing struggle among Mexico’s Gulf Cartel, its erstwhile allie..."
The Catholic Church responds to calls for a "Narco" truce.
Borderland Beat: The Catholic Church responds to calls for a "Narco" truce.
A woman and her granddaughter shot and killed by gunmen in Acapulco on March 15th. In an editorial released last Saturday, the Catholic Church laid the responsibility for the bloodshed on criminals and drug traffickers and not the government “fighting against this social scourge.”
A woman and her granddaughter shot and killed by gunmen in Acapulco on March 15th. In an editorial released last Saturday, the Catholic Church laid the responsibility for the bloodshed on criminals and drug traffickers and not the government “fighting against this social scourge.”
The killings below were committed by what the Mexican Ambassador to the US called 'businessmen'. Also, when does calling a truce with murderers become the right thing to do. Luckily, the Catholic Church is for fighting the cartels as well.
Rethinking the 'Spillover' Effect of Mexican Violence
Comment: While I agree with the assessment below the US is not on the verge of a spillover of violence, the greatest threat posed right now is the development of infrastructure that sets the conditions for an increase of violence to occur at a sustained level. An increase of attacks is only going to occur when they know they have nothing to fear or lose. This is why the violence is so bad in Mexico now...the problem was ignored when it was nascent. In otherwords, if one gives sanctuary to a termite the house is eventually going to come down. Then it is too late. Mexico is going down, its' only a matter of time. End comment.
Rethinking the 'Spillover' Effect of Mexican Violence
U.S. border-state politicians have been saying for years that Mexico’s drug violence is on the verge of spreading like wildfire through the American southwest. Although the facts fail to match up with this rhetoric, some recent developments add weight to the "spillover" theory.
According to the newspaper, the report says Mexican drug trafficking organizations have affiliates in at least 1,286 cities in the U.S., of which 143 are directly report to cartel leaders. At the top of the list is Sinaloa Cartel, which operates in 75 cities, followed by the Gulf Cartel (37), the Zetas (37), the Juarez Cartel (33), the Beltran Leyva Organization (30), the Familia (27), and the Tijuana Cartel (21).
Despite this grim news, there is no evidence to support claims that the U.S. is on the verge of experiencing anything close to the level of brutal violence that has hit Mexico.
Rethinking the 'Spillover' Effect of Mexican Violence
U.S. border-state politicians have been saying for years that Mexico’s drug violence is on the verge of spreading like wildfire through the American southwest. Although the facts fail to match up with this rhetoric, some recent developments add weight to the "spillover" theory.
According to the newspaper, the report says Mexican drug trafficking organizations have affiliates in at least 1,286 cities in the U.S., of which 143 are directly report to cartel leaders. At the top of the list is Sinaloa Cartel, which operates in 75 cities, followed by the Gulf Cartel (37), the Zetas (37), the Juarez Cartel (33), the Beltran Leyva Organization (30), the Familia (27), and the Tijuana Cartel (21).
Despite this grim news, there is no evidence to support claims that the U.S. is on the verge of experiencing anything close to the level of brutal violence that has hit Mexico.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Borderland Beat: Mexican Cop: Extortion of Motorists Acceptable Within Limits
If the government is corrupt, why should the people be any different?
Officers try to conceal their intentions, sometimes stopping a vehicle for 20-30 minutes until the driver pays some money to avoid a larger fine.
The non-governmental organization Transparencia Mexicana estimates that 197 million bribes totaling more than $2 billion were paid in Mexico in 2007."
JPSO Helps Bust Dirty Drug Cartel Lawyer - WWL - AM870 | FM105.3 | News | Talk | Sports
JPSO Helps Bust Dirty Drug Cartel Lawyer - WWL - AM870 | FM105.3 | News | Talk | Sports: "Investigators say that with the cooperation of the crime boss, police videotaped the next visit by the attorney, Alonzo Ramos. In that meeting, Ramos offered to facilitate the transfer of money from the crime boss's former drug source, a reputed member of the Mexican Gulf Cartel, to people close to the crime boss in the United States. Normand said these payments 'were being made in exchange for the cooperating individual's agreement not to cooperate with law enforcement.'"
Attacks on Journalists and “New Media” in Mexico’s Drug War (SWJ Blog)
Attacks on Journalists and “New Media” in Mexico’s Drug War (SWJ Blog): "Attacks on Journalists and “New Media” in Mexico’s Drug War:
A Power and Counter Power Assessment
by John P. Sullivan
Download the Full Article: Attacks on Journalists and “New Media” in Mexico’s Drug War
This paper examines the impact of attacks on journalists on media reportage within Mexico’s drug wars, known as “la Inseguridad” in Mexico. It examines two concepts in communication theory (agenda-setting theory and “mind framing” for power and counter-power) to frame the impact of drug cartel information operations (info ops). Specifically, It examines cartel attacks on media outlets, and kidnappings and assassinations of journalists by narco-cartels to gauge the potential impact of the attacks in terms of censorship, cartel co-option of reportage, and the use of new media (horizontal means of mass self-communication)."
A Power and Counter Power Assessment
by John P. Sullivan
Download the Full Article: Attacks on Journalists and “New Media” in Mexico’s Drug War
This paper examines the impact of attacks on journalists on media reportage within Mexico’s drug wars, known as “la Inseguridad” in Mexico. It examines two concepts in communication theory (agenda-setting theory and “mind framing” for power and counter-power) to frame the impact of drug cartel information operations (info ops). Specifically, It examines cartel attacks on media outlets, and kidnappings and assassinations of journalists by narco-cartels to gauge the potential impact of the attacks in terms of censorship, cartel co-option of reportage, and the use of new media (horizontal means of mass self-communication)."
On Mexico and violence ... | Letters to the Editor Blog | dallasnews.com
On Mexico and violence ... | Letters to the Editor Blog | dallasnews.com
This article highlights what is wrong with the Mexican government...
On Mexico and violence ...
This article highlights what is wrong with the Mexican government...
On Mexico and violence ...
Choose labels carefully
Re: "Let's call México's Cartels what they are: terrorists," Friday Editorials.
The editorial should be better headed "Let's Call Mexico's cartels what they are: very violent, well-financed transnational criminal organizations."
These transnational criminal organizations, which operate in both our countries, are not terrorist organizations. They are very violent criminal groups that are well-structured and well-financed. They pursue a single goal. They want to maximize their profits and do what most business do: hostile takeovers and pursue mergers and acquisitions. They use violence to protect their business from other competitors as well as from our two governments' efforts to roll them back. There is no political motivation or agenda whatsoever beyond their attempt to defend their illegal business.
Misunderstanding the challenge we face leads to wrong policies and bad policy making. If you label these organizations as terrorist, you will have to start calling drug consumers in the U.S. "financiers of terrorist organizations" and gun dealers "providers of material support to terrorists." Otherwise, you really sound as if you want to have your cake and eat it too. That's why I would underscore that the editorial page should be careful what it advocates for.
Re: "Let's call México's Cartels what they are: terrorists," Friday Editorials.
The editorial should be better headed "Let's Call Mexico's cartels what they are: very violent, well-financed transnational criminal organizations."
These transnational criminal organizations, which operate in both our countries, are not terrorist organizations. They are very violent criminal groups that are well-structured and well-financed. They pursue a single goal. They want to maximize their profits and do what most business do: hostile takeovers and pursue mergers and acquisitions. They use violence to protect their business from other competitors as well as from our two governments' efforts to roll them back. There is no political motivation or agenda whatsoever beyond their attempt to defend their illegal business.
Misunderstanding the challenge we face leads to wrong policies and bad policy making. If you label these organizations as terrorist, you will have to start calling drug consumers in the U.S. "financiers of terrorist organizations" and gun dealers "providers of material support to terrorists." Otherwise, you really sound as if you want to have your cake and eat it too. That's why I would underscore that the editorial page should be careful what it advocates for.
Arturo Sarukhan, Ambassador of Mexico to the U.S., Washington, D.C.
Editorial: Let’s call Mexico’s cartels what they are: terrorists | Dallas Morning News Editorials - Opinion and Commentary for Dallas, Texas - The Dallas Morning News
Editorial: Let’s call Mexico’s cartels what they are: terrorists | Dallas Morning News Editorials - Opinion and Commentary for Dallas, Texas - The Dallas Morning News: "By labeling cartel members as the terrorists they are, American law enforcers gain significant extra powers, and penalties are boosted for anyone who directly aids and abets the criminals. Money launderers and gun smugglers, for example, could face life terms in prison and fines of up to $50,000 per violation."
Mexico ambassador: Our cartel leaders are businessmen, not terrorists | Opinion Blog | dallasnews.com
Mexico ambassador: Our cartel leaders are businessmen, not terrorists | Opinion Blog | dallasnews.com: "In a letter to the editor today, Mexico's ambassador, Arturo Sarukhan , comes to the defense of these mass murdering, torturing, dismembering, bombing, beheading, kidnapping and drug trafficking organizations, arguing that they are businessmen, not terrorists. Folks, we have a first here. You will not, until now, have seen any top Mexican official actually defending the cartels to this extent. But Sarukhan, taking issue with our editorial last week in defense of a bill before Congress to put Mexico's six biggest cartels on the State Department's list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations, strongly disagrees."
The Canadian Press: Mexico acquits last of 35 officials arrested in 2009 on suspicion of aiding drug cartel
The Canadian Press: Mexico acquits last of 35 officials arrested in 2009 on suspicion of aiding drug cartel: "The freeing of Mayor Armando Medina Torres marks a major setback for the federal effort to clean up alleged corruption in President Felipe Calderon's home state of Michoacan."
Weak Laws Undermine Efforts To Stop Gun Trafficking To Mexico | Media Matters for America
Weak Laws Undermine Efforts To Stop Gun Trafficking To Mexico | Media Matters for America: "A recent report by the Center for Public Integrity on efforts to prevent gun trafficking reveals that beyond recent investigations on tactics employed by the ATF, there are several important questions about law enforcement having the resources and statutes necessary to prevent trafficking. The report identifies several limitations undermining efforts to prevent gun trafficking to Mexico."
U.S. Warns of Mexico Peril - WSJ.com
U.S. Warns of Mexico Peril - WSJ.com: "The little-noticed warning, published last Friday in a warden's message from the U.S. Consulate General in Monterrey, said U.S. officials had 'information that Mexican criminal gangs may intend to attack U.S. law-enforcement officers or U.S. citizens in the near future in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León and San Luis Potosí.'"
Expert pessimistic on Mexico's future - El Paso Times
If the professor's assessment is correct, we will not be looking at a series of localized insurgencies, but a series of independent revolutions. Mexico for all intensive purposes appears to only be getting worse.
Warring cartels in Mexico are also becoming more fragmented, he said. For those who want to negotiate, that will make it tougher to find the right crime bosses to cut a deal with.
'Now it's too many, and it's a changing cast of characters,' he said."
Monday, April 11, 2011
Mexican drug cartels targeting and killing children - The Washington Post
Again, the cartels know there is no dealth penalty and know effective legal efforst to curtail the level of violence and indiscriminate killing.
The situation continues to only grow worse. Before, the media and government officials wanted to attribute deaths and disappearances to narco versus narco fighting...we see that assessment is wrong.
What will be done? Will the people finally take up arms and fight? Will the government finally sanction a death penalty? Where does the line stop in Mexico?
Libya? What meaning does Libya hold to the US?
The US needs to watch the cartels more and start targeting them as they attempt to cross their activities into the US.
Again, the late counterinsurgent David Galula remains prophetic when he said:
"It can no longer be ignored or applied unconsciously in a country beset by a revolutionary war, when what is at stake is precisely the counterinsurgent’s power directly challenged by an active minority through the use of subversion and force. The counterinsurgent who refuses to use this law for his own purposes, who is bound by its peacetime limitations, tends to drag the war out without getting closer to victory. How far to extend the limitations is a matter of ethics, and a very serious one, but no more so than bombing the civilian population in a conventional war. All wars are cruel, the revolutionary war perhaps most of all because every citizen, whatever his wish, is or will be directly and actively involved in it by the insurgent who needs him and cannot afford to let him remain neutral. The cruelty of the revolutionary war is not a mass, anonymous cruelty but a highly personalized, individual one. No greater crime can be committed by the counterinsurgent than accepting, or resigning himself to, the protraction of the war. He would do as well to give up early."
Mexican drug cartels targeting and killing children - The Washington Post
The situation continues to only grow worse. Before, the media and government officials wanted to attribute deaths and disappearances to narco versus narco fighting...we see that assessment is wrong.
What will be done? Will the people finally take up arms and fight? Will the government finally sanction a death penalty? Where does the line stop in Mexico?
Libya? What meaning does Libya hold to the US?
The US needs to watch the cartels more and start targeting them as they attempt to cross their activities into the US.
Again, the late counterinsurgent David Galula remains prophetic when he said:
"It can no longer be ignored or applied unconsciously in a country beset by a revolutionary war, when what is at stake is precisely the counterinsurgent’s power directly challenged by an active minority through the use of subversion and force. The counterinsurgent who refuses to use this law for his own purposes, who is bound by its peacetime limitations, tends to drag the war out without getting closer to victory. How far to extend the limitations is a matter of ethics, and a very serious one, but no more so than bombing the civilian population in a conventional war. All wars are cruel, the revolutionary war perhaps most of all because every citizen, whatever his wish, is or will be directly and actively involved in it by the insurgent who needs him and cannot afford to let him remain neutral. The cruelty of the revolutionary war is not a mass, anonymous cruelty but a highly personalized, individual one. No greater crime can be committed by the counterinsurgent than accepting, or resigning himself to, the protraction of the war. He would do as well to give up early."
Mexican drug cartels targeting and killing children - The Washington Post
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Rudimentary Insurgency Center of Gravity Analysis
Excerpt from Notes of a Counterinsurgent
The Center of Gravity (see figure 3) for the insurgent is the indigenous population. Local support is helps arm and sustain the movement by providing the insurgent Critical Capabilities of supply, intelligence, communication, fire support, force protection, infiltration nodes, etc. Support may be active, passive or coerced.
The Critical Requirement the insurgent requires in order to nurture and protect his Center of Gravity (local population) is psychological dominance of the battlespace. As long as the population fears/prefers the insurgent more than COIN forces the insurgent has achieved his objective.
Examples:
Many people are afraid to speak out against the Mexican cartels because law enforcement measures are ineffective against them, or law enforcement official are colluding with the cartels.
Sunni moderates are afraid to speak out against al Qaeda or Palestinian Extremists. Al Qaeda calls moderates infidels and kill them as opportunities develop. Palestinian leader, Mahmud Abbas, was unable to stop extremist violence in late 2008/2009 that resulted in Israel conducting operation Cast Lead. Extremist Palestinians threatened civilian Palestinian lives if they did not fight against Israel.
Afghan locals are afraid to speak out against the Taliban because they believe the US will desert them before they can develop a sustained capability to protect themselves and their families.
Despite the overt fear and control however likely lurks a silent minority waiting to come out from the cold and fight against the terrorist or insurgent when he feels he can make some positive gains. Identifying such individuals is a COIN information collection requirement. Such people are the heart of an insurgent movement, or the heart of a COIN countermovement.
· There have been low-level reports of isolated forms of vigilantism against the Mexican cartels, but the effort is not sustained; this indicates a silent minority exists that want to fight against the cartels.
The Critical Vulnerability to the mosaic of the insurgents needs is trust. Trust ties everything together. Break the trust, and the insurgent (or counterinsurgent for that matter) has nothing to sustain him.
The true Center Of Gravity for COIN forces is also the indigenous population. For the objective of the counterinsurgent is to ensure the indigenous population complies with rule of law and run their own areas without assistance from COIN forces.
It is therefore a competition between the insurgent and counterinsurgent to control the population and win by proxy. Winning is achieved via the population by both sides, NOT by direct contact between the two opposing forces.
Hence this is why the late David Galula’s following comment remains valid today, as it did during his day.
"It can no longer be ignored or applied unconsciously in a country beset by a revolutionary war, when what is at stake is precisely the counterinsurgent’s power directly challenged by an active minority through the use of subversion and force. The counterinsurgent who refuses to use this law for his own purposes, who is bound by its peacetime limitations, tends to drag the war out without getting closer to victory.
How far to extend the limitations is a matter of ethics, and a very serious one, but no more so than bombing the civilian population in a conventional war. All wars are cruel, the revolutionary war perhaps most of all because every citizen, whatever his wish, is or will be directly and actively involved in it by the insurgent who needs him and cannot afford to let him remain neutral. The cruelty of the revolutionary war is not a mass, anonymous cruelty but a highly personalized, individual one. No greater crime can be committed by the counterinsurgent than accepting, or resigning himself to, the protraction of the war. He would do as well to give up early.
The strategic problem of the counterinsurgent may be defined now as follows: “To find the favorable minority, to organize it in order to mobilize the population against the insurgent minority.” Every operation, whether in the military field or in the political, social, economic, and psychological fields, must be geared to that end."
This excerpt was obtained from David Galula’s Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice, pages 56 and 57, dated 1964 and printed by Frederick A. Praeger, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduced with permission of Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc, Westport CT.
Of interest to counterinsurgents is a quote by one of America’s favorite insurgents and founding fathers, Samuel Adams…
“It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds.”
Insurgent Center of Gravity 101
Excerpt from Notes of a Counterinsurgent
Insurgent Center of Gravity 101
Center of Gravity (COG) - is the population; without the population insurgents have no way to sustain the movement or to infiltrate and subvert society.
Critical Capabilities (CC) – are the insurgents warfighting capabilities e.g. intelligence, logistics, command/control, fires, force protection, recruitment, propaganda, etc. Conventional forces bring their capabilities to the fight; insurgents have to rely mostly on the preexisting environment or surrounding countries for their capabilities. This is why the population is the center of gravity.
Critical Requirements (CR) – Psychological dominance of the battlespace. The insurgent requires the local populace to support him, or he cannot succeed. If the insurgent cannot buy popular support, he will force popular support via terrorism, blackmail, torture, extortion, kill informants, etc. Disrupt this and the counterinsurgent disrupts his operational capacity; the population will often side with the perceived winner to survive.
Critical Vulnerabilities (CV) - Social Seams, and varying reasons to fight, are most susceptible to attack. The population supports the insurgent for different reasons; find those reasons, the seams, and fill that void if possible with alternatives so locals avoid terrorism and insurgency, or even fight against it. This will allow the counterinsurgent to reserve killing for hard-core members while turning the population against the movement. Exploit social seams and lack of trust…undermine the mutual trust, or leverage to the point where the population see the relationship with insurgents a liability…most of the tactical COIN effort should be spent here…everything else (COG, CC and CR) are tied to this, particularly the CR.
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