Countering Narco-Cartels - A Counterinsurgency (COIN) Approach

Mexico will have to figure out its own way to engage the cartels, however, here are some thoughts and insights learned from others that may be helpful.  There's no one solution, but experiences that may be relevevant in certain situations.

COIN Perspective

The essence of COIN is about finding and creating divisions in relationships between insurgents and the population so a stable form of governance can be established.  Governance may be traditional (western/US/British) or non-traditional (tribal/clan/religious), but a form of governance the population is willing to accept amongst themselves.

It is not realistic to eradicate all insurgents since insurgents require local support and consist mainly of the indigenous population-they are enmeshed.  Additionally, many of the people fought today will be needed to constitute the government you build tomorrow-efforts countering this end state prolong the fight in the insurgents favor who intend to fill the governance void after your will and resources are worn out. 

YOU, THE COUNTERINSURGENT, WILL NOT WIN IN COIN.  COIN is about convincing the people to fight against the insurgent, or to convince people not to partake in insurgent activities.  PROXY ACHIEVES YOUR SUCCESS.

At the end of the day, each member of the coin effort needs to ask himself, “what did I do to enable to the population to fight against the insurgent or instable environment”; if the answer to this question cannot be supported with some type OF EVIDENCE or indication, it is very possible your effort, life and resources was expended for nothing-  be prepared for a long hard slog.

THE MORE COIN FORCES TAKE OWNERSHIP OF THE FIGHT, THE LESS PEOPLE WILL TAKE THE FIGHT UPON their OWN SHOULDERS.  This will be different at first in order to mobilize the population, but a timeframe must be ascertained to put the fight in the hands of the population.

Any strategy, perception or POLICY that prevents the population from fighting on their own is likely flawed and you will be in a quagmire.  Regardless of the quagmire, you will still be stuck in this environment until a political decision is made to reinforce or withdraw, BUT YOUR COURSE of action WILL generally NEED TO BE THE SAME TO LIMIT ANTAGONIZING A POPULACE WHO MAY REVOLT AGAINST YOU.  A REVOLT WILL CAUSE YOU TO OVERREACT AND UNDERMINE YOUR LEGITIMACY and exacerbate preexisting conditions.